El Nino and Nor easters: Why the Northeast Can Still Get Hammered

A strong El Nino usually means less snow overall for the Northeast. It also has a history of producing the single biggest storms on record.

Published September 28, 2026 · Roof Gutter Now LLC

“Below normal snowfall” is a seasonal average. Roofs do not experience averages. They experience individual storms.

The pattern that produces the big ones

During El Nino winters the southern branch of the jet stream runs strong and wet. When that moisture rides up the coast and meets cold air pressed in from the north, you get the classic nor easter. The Climate Prediction Center has described this as making a couple of large snowstorms more likely in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic even in a season that is otherwise quiet.

Cornell’s regional climate center points to the January 2016 blizzard during one of the strongest El Ninos on record: over 30 inches of snow, 60 mph gusts, and record coastal water levels.

Why a single big storm is an ice dam event

A two-foot snowfall does three things at once to a roof:

• It puts an insulating blanket over the deck, which lets attic heat build under it and start melting from below.
• It buries the eave and the gutter, so any meltwater hits a frozen zone with nowhere to drain.
• It usually ends with a warm-up, which is when the melt arrives all at once.

That is why our ice dam calls spike three to five days after a major storm, not during it. See how much roof snow is too much for the load side of the question.

Planning for one storm instead of a season

If you live in the Northeast, a mild seasonal outlook is not a reason to skip preparation. It is a reason to prepare for a spike instead of a grind. Practically:

• Have cable installed in the fall, since nobody is installing on an iced roof in February.
• Know your ice dam removal contact before the storm, when crews still have open slots.
• Keep a roof rake for the lower slopes, and stay off the ladder.

Weather outlooks describe probabilities, not guarantees. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and other agencies are updated monthly and can change. Nothing here is a prediction of what will happen at any specific address. Heat cable products are supplied by Radiant Solutions Company and installed by Roof Gutter Now LLC.